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Jan 25th, 2011: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on January 25, 2011

SP-500 15-m in chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=dfd23e80-8564-46d7-b987-4bb32909dcf9

10:35 am EST:  And here is the update 15-min chart.  Very interesting morning.  Lots of head-faking going on in attempt to catch the most traders left holding the bag on the next major directional move.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=923100aa-0266-49b6-8b0d-efe9e7cf4861

SP-500 15-min chart (10:30 am):

10:15 am EST:  The drop this morning to 1285.77 makes it very unlikely that the Ending Diagonal (ED) alternate count is correct, as the wave v-(5) of the ED can no longer reach above 1296.06 without violating the ED rule tha each of the sequential waves i, iii, and being shorter than the previous wave.  I have replaced the ED alternate with an ascending triangle count for wave (4) of 5-[1]-P3.  The ascending triangle measures 20 points (i.e. 1291-1271) and has a flat top at the 1291 pivot resistance.  A decisive break above the 1291 pivot could lead to an aggressive run up to a triangle target of 1291+20=1311 for (5) of 5-[1]-P3.  Today’s low of 1285.77 would be the end of the E-leg of the wave (4) triangle.

The primary count remains that wave (2) of A-[2]-P3 ended yesterday at 1291.93.  This 1291.93 level should not be breached if this count is correct and an aggressive more lower towards the 1257 pivot in wave (3) should begin to materialize today and tomorrow.

These two counts are obviously in strong opposition in the near term.  We need to watch to see what key level breaks first.  Above the 1291 pivot resistance look for 1303 to 1315 in the alternate count.  Below the 1278 support look for a drop to the 1257 for the primary count.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8dcca93b-ac9b-481d-a83c-a391dbe783c8

SP-500 5-min chart (10:01 am):

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