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Jan 20th, 2011: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 20, 2011

5:05 pm EST:  So far it looks like 5-waves down and 3-waves back up. 

Primary count is that major degree wave [2]-P3 is underway of the 1296 high.  Specifically, wave iii-(3) of A-[2]-P3 is about to get underway with a target of at least the 1257 pivot.  And I’m think (5) of A-[2]-P3 should reach the 1245 pivot.  The B-[2]-P3 should bounce to the 1270/1274 to be followed by wave C-[2]-P3 that should reach at least the 1229 to 1219 pivot area in early  to mid February.  From there wave [3]-P3 will get underway and target 1476 by late summer 2011.

The alternate count (blue) is based on the very bullish 3-[3]-P3 wave that has been underway since the late Nov 2010 low of 1173.  I’ve been talking about the possibility of count for a while now (since Mid-December 2010).  This count would have wave (1) of 3-[3]-P3 complete at 1296.   This current correction would be wave (2) of 3-[3]-P3 and should be a quick A-B-C correction to test the 1257 pivot.  Note, wave C=A at 1258.    From there this count will sky-rocket higher going into the spring in wave (3) of 3-[3]-P3.   I have [3]-P3 completing around 1476 by late spring to early summer 2011.

So the length of time duration and depth of this current correction will tell us which of the two counts is correct.  If the correction holds the 1257 pivot over the next week and then heads aggressively higher, then the alternate count is likely playing-out.  If the correction takes 3 to 4 weeks and test the 1219/1229 pivot area, then the primary count is playing-out.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily cahrt (EOD):

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