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Dec 12, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on December 1, 2010

5:25 pm EST:  FYI.  If you want to ignore all the 1st and 2nd alternate count info, then focus on the 60-min chart,  where I’m only showing the primary count (white).  Very conservatively, minute degree wave (1) of minor 5 should hit 1217/1219, wave (2) at 1196/1206, wave (3) at 1240/1248, wave (4) at 1229 and finally wave (5) at 1251/1257.  But there is a more bullish chase that minor 5 will extent to 1291, where minor 5 = minor 1.

5:05 pm EST:  My primary count that called the minor wave 4-[1]-P3 low at 1173.64 on Monday, Nov 29th has played out to near perfection today.  I was very confident in a wave iii-(1) of 5-[1]-P3 gap higher today above the 1187 pivot and run towards 1219.  This was stated all day yesterday in my intra-day updates and reiterated in my EOD update.   This minor wave 5-[1]-P3 should carry the SP-500 to a target area betwen 1251 and 1291, W5=W1, by the end of 2010 to early 2011.

For the primary count (white), wave iii-(1) reached the first projected target of 1206, iii=1.62*a.  I’m looking for wave iv-(1) pull-back towards 1197/1200, and then a wave v-(1) run to a final target of 1217, v=i.

For my first alternate count (blue), it is a slight variant of the primary count that simply extends the wave iii-(1) target to 1222, iii=2.62*i and then v-(1) to 1229, v=i.

Finally I have established a bearish near term second alternate count (red), that has this move to 1217, C=1.62*A, labeled as part of a flat for wave (b) of 4-[1]-P3.  After reaching 1217, I would expect a second leg down for wave (c) of 4-[1]-P3 of 54 points to 1162, (c)=(a).   The minor wave 4, 38% retrace target is 1156.  The key  for monitoring the progress of this count is any break down below 1190.34, top of wave i-(1) and certainly a close under the 1187 pivot support would open up the door to this count playing out.   I’d give this could under a 10% chance as of right now, but I want to show it for completeness.

 SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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