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Nov 23rd, 2010 – Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on November 23, 2010

5:00 pm EST:  Nothing much new after the close.  I see the possibility of a small wave iv triangle for both the primary and alternate counts.   The triangle projects to 7 point drop from 1181 to 1174 for wave-v early tomorrow.  But as I said the last time the SP-500 was trading near this key 1177 pivot, closing above 1177 is bullish and the market could have put in the bottom today and it will begin to advance from here.  It’s very hard to discern these small bottoming patterns.   This time however, the small intra-day triangle did not “tip it’s hand” and drop lower just before the close like it did on Nov 17th.  That time, the drop gave me the green light to call a bottom after the market closed and market shot higher the next day as I predicted.   This time in my opinion, the odds favor a small drop at the open tomorrow.

For the primary count we are looking for wave v-c-(2) of 5-[1]-P3 low around 1174 and then the start of an advance towards a wave (3) high between 1221 for (3)=1.62*(1)  and 1248 for wave (3)=2.62*(1).  Final target for (5) of 5-[1]-P3 is 1250.  This primary count forms a “double bottom” near 1173 before heading to new 2010 highs.

For the alternate count (double ZZ) we ware looking for the wave v-A-(Y) of 4-[1]-P3 low at 1174 and then a move towards 1187 to 1192 for wave B-(Y).  Finally wave C-(Y) will drop to a target of 1156 (38% retrace) to complete minor wave 4-[1]-P3.   The minor wave 5-[1]-P3 target of 1250 for this is the same as the primary count.    This alternate count simplely has a a slightly larger retrace (i.e. 38% vs 23%) before making the new 2010 highs.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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