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Nov 23rd, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-market

Posted by pugsma on November 23, 2010

8:35 am EST:  ES Futures have drop to 1183 (1185 cash equiv.) on the news out of North Korea.

The lower limit of the primary count wave ii-C-(b) as it’s currently labeled for the today’s cash market is 1184.58.   This also coincides with the lower light blue trend line that ranges from 1182 (open) to 1185 (close) today.  The lower trend-line support is very important for this triangle count, however for the triangle to remain valid the wave (a) low of 1173.00 is the lower limit.   I would look for the 1177 pivot to hold as support.

For the alternate count wave (2) of 5-[1]-P3 can retrace all the wave down to 1173.00 and remain valid.   I would expect the 1177 pivot support to hold for this count.  This count would allow for a gap fill of the 1179 to 1184 gap.

The 2nd alternate count (red) from yesterday on the 15-min chart is back in play this morning.  This count would have Friday’s high near 1200 as the to of an (x) wave that starts are second ZZ down to a 1156 target (38% retrace).  Yesterday’s price would be waves i-ii of A of the 2nd ZZ down.  So today’s gap down open would be wave iii of A.  The target for A is near the 1168 pivot support.  The probably of this count increases significantly if the 1177 pivot support does not hold in the cash market today.

Support today is at 1187, then the 1179/1184 gap, and finally the 1177 pivot.  Resistance is at 1200.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3c4255ff-ad4d-48c6-bb67-49ebbcaa8599

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c0a9aba0-ba20-4d62-bbca-72d4dd854fbc

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