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Nov 22nd, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on November 22, 2010

8:40 am EST: ES Future traded up to 1206 (1208 cash equiv.) overnight and have dipped to ES 1193 (1195 cash equiv.) in pre-market trading.  Rarely to you see ES move up this aggressively then collapse.   Clearly there was positive and now negative reaction the Ireland EU Bailout.  This reaction plays into my EOD analysis from Friday.

Recall in the EOD on Friday, I’m looking for a c-B-(b) drop to test pivot support at 1187 today.  This would be a 50% retrace of A-(b) and it typical for a wave B.    From there I’m looking for C-(b) to headed toward the 1214/1216 area target later this week.

For the alternate count (blue), I’m looking for wave (2) retrace of between 50% (1187) and 62% (1184) today.  Then wave (3) of 5-[1]-P3 will head for a target near 1226/1231 later this week.

Support today is at the 1187 pivot and then the 1177 pivot.  Note, a break through the 1173 low would open the door to a wave 4-[1]-P3 retrace of 38% area of 1156.  This would be my bearish 2nd alternate count in red with the move to 1200 as an (x) wave and the drop to 1156 a 2nd ZZ.  I still only give this out about a 10% chance and I’m 90% sure the 1187 and worse case 1177 pivot will hold the next pull-back.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=4409b9b3-f14c-4efe-afb1-bdba4fbad1ca

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=df884d57-7166-4254-ba49-a30572feab24

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD, 11-19-10):

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