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Nov 19th, 2010: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on November 19, 2010

5:45 pm EST:  I’m offering a “Holiday Special ” Premium Service: The balance of November and all of December at a discounted rate of $25.  E-mail me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to get started today.

5:40 pm EST:  SP-500 tested and closed above the key 1187 pivot.  The SP-500 daily closed above the 13-day EMA of 1197 and above the 20-day SMA of 1198.  Finally the SP-500 closed above the key 200-week SMA of 1191. All of this positive in regards to the minor wave 4-[1]-P3 price low having been put in a 1173 on Tuesday (11/16).

For the primary count (i.e. large symmetric triangle wave 1-[4]-P3), I think wave B-(b) may have one more c-leg down on Monday to test the 1187 pivot support gain.  This would be a flat for wave B-(b) and then wave C-(b) would head for the 1215 area around the end of  Thanksgiving week.  It’s also possible that today’s low of 1189 was all of wave B-(b) and the SP-500 will head directly to the 1215 early next week in wave C-(b), but I favor a dip on Monday to suck in some shorts (i.e. bull market fuel) before next agrressive more higher.

I have added an alternate count (blue) that has the minor wave 4-[1]-P3 low completely finished at 1173.  The move up 1200 on Thursday completed minute degree wave (1) of 5-[1]-P3.  In which case monday’s test of the 1187 pivot will be the completion of wave (2) flat.  Wave (3) should target the 1231 area by the end of Thanksgiving week.

For both counts I’m still looking for a 2010 year-end target of at least 1251 and maybe as high as 1291 (W5=W1).

Enjoy your weekend.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

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