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Nov 17th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on November 17, 2010

4:50 pm EST:  11-17-10: I’m offering a “Holiday Special ” Premium Service: The balance of November and all of December at a discounted rate of $25.  E-mail me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to get started today.

4:45 pm EST:  Today was relatively boring, but very important non-the-less.  First off we had a 2nd consecutively close above the key 1177 pivot.  For most of today I was unsure whether or not today’s price action was part of a wave iv and we would see one more wave v drop.  However, after the small intra-day triangle broke down instead of upward, I believe this offered a big clue.  The small intra-day triangle was a b-wave of an a-b-c corrective for wave ii of the next move higher and not part of wave iv for the next move lower.  Consequently, I’m focusing my counts down to just one primary count.  The 1173.00 low from Tuesday was the end of minute degree wave (a) of a large symmetrical triangle that will play-out for minor degree wave 4-[1]-P3.  The drop from 1227 to 1173 (54 points, -4.4%) was all of the price correction, but not all of the time necessary for wave 4-[1]-P3.  Now for the next 2 to 3 weeks the SP-500 will trace out a triangle wave that will buy the time necessary to satisfy the 3+ weeks required.  And the triangle will also satisfy the guideline of alternation with minute degree wave 2-[1]-P3, which was a Zig-Zag.

I’m looking for the minute degree (b) wave of the triangle to head for the 1203 to 1213 area by Thanksgiving.  This (b) wave will be made up an A-B-C.  The A-wave is a 5-wave move and today we put in waves i-ii of A.  I’m looking for wave iii-A to move aggressively higher tomorrow and Friday towards the 1195 to 1197 gap.

There is not an alternate count at this time, but support remains at the 50-day SMA of 1165 and the 1168 pivot, if there is another small drop from here.  As I explained in last night’s EOD update, a drop and close under the 50-day SMA (1165) would turn things very bearish for the intermediate term the next month or two.  In that case I will likely change my count regarding a new high above 1227 being made in 2010.  More on this topic if it comes to pass.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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