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Nov 12th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on November 12, 2010

My #8 Ranked Purdue Boilermakers kick-off the 2010-11 College Basketball season on Sunday Nov 14th against the Howard Bison.  Purdue’s starting line-up features Pre-Season All-American 6-10 senior center (#25) JaJuan Johnson and Pre-season All-Big Ten 6-4 senior shooting guard (#33) E’Twaun Moore.  Tragically, Purdue lost Pre-season All-American 6-8 senior (#4) forward Robbie Hummel to season ending knee injury during October practice.  Before the Hummel injury Purdue was ranked #2 in the nation and one of 3 favorites (along with Duke and Michigan St) to win the 2011 National Championship.  Many in the media have written Purdue off after the Hummel injury.  However, those of us that know this team know just how deep and talented it is.  Purdue is still a Final Four team in my opinion and I intend to enjoy following them all season long.  I plan to attend several home and road games throughout the year and I plan to be at the Final Four in Houston, TX  April 2011 to watch the Boilermakers cut downt the nets.

Here is a 2010-11 Purdue Basketball Our Time Video and 20090-10 Highlight Video.  Boiler Up! 

9:15 pm EST:  Looking at the Daily Candle Chart you can see that the SP-500 is still in an aggressive uptrend with today’s low back-testing the 20-day SMA of 1195.  Minor wave 3-[1]-P3 over-bought conditions were worked off this past week, particularly on the RSI which fall from 80 to 56. I’m watching the up sloping RSI trend line to see if it holds support round 50.  Also, there is key up sloping trend line on the daily MACD to keep an eye on.  I’d expect both of these trend lines to hold during the minor wave 4-[1]-P3 correction.

Now moving to the SP-500 Weekly Candle Chart there was a very interesting back test and hold of the 200-week SMA at 1193 today.  Remember we had a very bullish cross above this key 200-week SMA during the Nov 4th/5th break-out move from 1183 ot 1227.  It will be interesting to see of this minor wave 4-[1]-P3 can hold above this down sloping 200-week SMA.  One other possible scenario to considder is that if minor wave 4-[1]-P3 plays out as a 3-3-5 flat instead of a double ZZ, then we could see a move back to near 1227 during OPEX week and then a fall back to 1187 pivot support to complete minor wave 4-[1]-P3 above this 200-week SMA.  The flat scenario would satisfy the guideline of altenration with minor wave 2-[1]-P2 which was a simple ZZ.

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

SP-500 Weekly Candles (EOD):

4:45 pm EST:  I just noticed the blog has gone over 1 millions hits today Nov 12th, 2010 since I moved the old blog to Word Press on May 31st, 2010.    That’s 1 millions hits in just under 6 months.  Thanks to everyone for viewing and contributing to this site !!!.

  • Hits Since 5-31-10

    • 1,001,353 hits
  • 4:40 pm EST:   The SP-500 dipped to a low of 1194.08 today.  The trend is clearly down, as new lower highs and lower lows are being made within the down channel.  Looking at things closely on the 5-min chart, so far we can see a simple (a)-(b)-(c), 5-3-5 wave, Zig-Zag for 4-[1]-P3.  For this single ZZ, wave (c)=(a) at 1193, so that fits with today’s  low at 1194.  The total correction thus far is 33 points (-2.7%).  I’m looking for the market to head higher next week  with the beginning of minor wave 5-[1]-P3.   My target for minor wave 5-[1]-P3 range from 1251 to 1315 going into the end of 2010 to early 2011.   The alternate count is that minor wave 4-[1]-P3 needs a second ZZ for added time and price correction.  For this count, I’m looking for the (x) wave to reach the 1204 to 1208 area on Monday and then a second ZZ down in wave (y) to 1183, wave (y)=0.62*(w).  The 23% retrace target for minor wave 4-[1]-P is 1184, which fits with this second scenario.  There is strong pivot support in he 1177/1187 area for this double ZZ scenario.  Also a complex double corrective is expected for minor wave 4-[1]-P3 since minor wave 2-[1]-P3 was a single ZZ.  This alternate scenario is on equal probability (ie. 50/50) for the primary count.  We will have to watch early next week to see the SP-500 stalls at resistance the upper down channel in the 1204 to 1208 area.  If the SP-500 moves past this area and recapture the 1219 pivot on a closing basis, then minor wave 5-[1]-P3 will be underway.

    Have a great weekend.

    SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

    SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

    SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

    SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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