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Nov 5th, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on November 5, 2010

8:50 am EST:  Looking at how wave (3) is labeled, I have wave i = 14 points and the wave iv low at 1215.  So if wave v=i, then the upside target for wave (3) is actually 1229 today.  This would produce a little channel over-through above 1225, which can happen in a wave (3).

8:35 am EST:  October jobs data was a surprise to the upside.  My take on this is that the primary count wave (3) may extend a bit today.  The top side target would be in the 1225 area if it follows the upper light blue channel line.   Today should exhaust the wave (3) move and the wave (4) pull-back may be occur next week as I have it shown on the charts.

8:25 am EST:  ES Futures dipped slightly to 1212 (1215 cash equiv.) overnight.

For the primary count is that wave (3)-5-[1]-P3 complete at 1121 and I’m looking for a slight pull-back of at least 23% to 1113 and maybe as deep at 28% to 1207 in wave (4).  I’m expecting wave (5) to reach the ascending triangle target of 1232 at a minimum.  It’s really a matter of timing in how quickly this plays out.  It could take a few days to a couple weeks.

The alternate count is that wave 3-[1]-P3 ended at 1221 yesterday and wave 4-[1]-P3 will work it’s way to the 1177 pivot support.   Then wave 5-[1]-P3 would head towards 1251.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e8cceb49-30ad-4de5-b278-0d3fb471371a

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6b919cfd-9e0b-4d79-a1ab-b4de7b0ef0c1

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