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Oct 25th, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on October 25, 2010

8:30 am EST:  ES Futures jumped to 1193 (1197 cash equivalent) overnight and have backed off to 1188 (1192 cash equiv).

If the ES Futures hold for the next hour and half to the open, then the 1189.43 level will be breached in the cash market setting a new high.  The primary count for the 3-3-5 flat is still valid, as the (b) wave target was 1.22*(a) = 1192.  The (b) label will just move to today’s high, if reaches 1192 and does more much higher.   The wave (c) of 4-[1]-P3 down-side target is 1148 once wave (b) is complete.

The alternate count for the Ending Diagonal (ED) also projects to a target of 1192 if c=a.  And the ED has a maximum target of 1202 as currently labeled.  The wave 4-[1]-P3 down-side target for the ED count is a retrace back to the 1132 area where the wave (4) began.

So basically the two counts converge at 1192 and if there is a move beyond 1192 up to 1202, then the ED was correct.   If the SP-500 blows past 1202, then clearly both counts are wrong and it’s still in a wave iii-(5) with targets up to 1215 to 1220.   Minor wave 3-[1]-P3 will be 1.62 times wave 1-[1]-P3 at 1132.  This would be the idealized Elliott Wave upside target for wave 3-[1]-P3 to terminate.

There is resistance at the 200-week SMA at 1195.  There is also an open gap at 1197 to 1201, left open from the large drop in late April 2010.  Both of these areas are upside targets for today.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0d6734e5-50c3-4ffc-89bc-2d1d266e2f9d

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6a7aaa21-ef3a-4e5f-88f3-1f05550ed7b9

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