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Oct 19th, 2010: Update 4 – Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on October 19, 2010

3:35 pm EST:  The primary count shown this morning was correct in that minor degree wave 3-[1]-P3 topped yesterday (10/18) at 1185.53.   The SP-500 has now corrected down to 1159.71 in 5-waves that can be labeled as minute degree wave (a) of 4-[1]-P3.  I’m expecting a bounce to between the 1168 and 1177 pivot area tomorrow for wave (b) and then a drop to the 1150 support area in wave (c) by Thursday or Friday.  The 1152 area is the first target for wave 4-[1]-P3, as it’s the minimum 23% retrace point.   Also it’s very possible that minor degree wave 4-[1]-P3 will play-out much longer (i.e. week or two) in time and form some type of complex corrective (i.e. triangle) between support at 1150 and resistance at 1177.

Alternately, I can count 3-waves down to 1159.71, with wave (c)=(a) at 1160.  This would mean that wave minor degree wave 4-[1]-P3 ended in only one day and with less than the 23% retrace target of 1152.  I highly doubt this scenario, as this wave 4-[1]-P3 should last much longer in time and retrace deeper.

I would give the primary count about a 5 to 1 probability over the alternate count, as minor degree wave 4-[1]-P3 needs more time to play-out.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=16c4a86c-a87d-4a54-8881-0cee9b30e148

SP-500 5-min chart (3:30 pm):

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