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Oct 18th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on October 18, 2010

4:35 pm EST:  The wave iv-(5) triangle played out today as I predicted based the Friday 10/15 analysis.   A new high of 1185.53 was hit.

For the primary count I have two targets for the wave v-(5) thrust out of the triangle.  The first minimum target is 1187 (blue labels) and the second maximum target is 1196 (white labels), as shown on the 5-min chart.   Today’s high of 1185.53 certainly could qualify as the minimum target of 1187.  Or the 1196 maximum target could take until mid-to-late this week to play out.

On the 15-min and 60-min charts, a clear bearish rising wedge is starting to take shape.   The top of the wedge could reach the 1202 level later this week.   So somewhere between 1187 and 1202 is where this wave 3-[1]-P3 should end.

Based on a final level of 1196 for wave 3-[1]-P3 to complete, I believe wave 4-[1]-P3 will retrace about 38% to 1136 by about the time of the Nov 3rd Federal Reserve Announcement.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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