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Oct 18th, 2010: Update 3 – Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on October 18, 2010

3:30 pm EST:  I re-draw the channel lines on the 60-min chart to something that looks a little more reasonable.  There is very clear bearish rising wedge on the 60-min chart that could play out to the 1196 level or even 1202.

3:15 pm EST:   The SP-500 has hit a new high at 1185.53.  I have been looking at this wave iv-(5) triangle a little more closely.  There are two ways to measure it’s target.   The first has a minimum triangle target of about 1187 and the second a maximum target of 1196.

There is only the primary count left now.  I’m looking for wave 3-[1]-P3 to end somewhere between 1187 (blue lables) today and 1196 (white labels) by Wed/Thurs.  Then I expect a significant wave 4-[1]-P3 retrace in terms of price and/or time.  Wave 4-[1]-P3 targets range from 1136 (38%) to 1160 depending on the end of 3-[1]-P3.   Also, remember that a wave 4 likes to retrace to the wave (4) of lesser degree, which sets at 1131.86 and agrees with the 38% retrace target.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b92dd66f-532b-4f28-9c3f-d92691db739e

SP-500 5-min chart (3:10 pm):

SP-500 15-min chart (3:20 pm): 

SP-500 60-min chart (3:25 pm):

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