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Oct 12th, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on October 12, 2010

12:10 am EST:  Here’s a bigger picture look showing what will happen if the alternate bullish count plays out and the SP-500 pops through the upper yellow resistance line above 1177, stays in the blue ascending channel and heads for 1200 to 1220 by late October.

SP-500 60-min chart (12:00 pm):


11:50 am EST:  Updated 5-min chart.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f897a126-049c-430a-b8ce-8cf32ab0fb9c

SP-500 5-min chart (11:45 am):

11:25 am EST:  With the 1164.62 level exceeding the wave i-(a) level of 1164.40, the primary count that the SP-500 is in wave (a) of 4-[1]-P3 down is invalid.  The primary count is now that today’s low of 1155.17 was wave iv-(5) of the ending diagonal (ED).  This means that the maximum wave v-(5) of the ED can be is 1155.71 + 17.27 = 1172.98.  I think today’s bounce off 1155.71 to 1164.62 is wave a-iv-(5) and we should get a b-iv-(5) pull-back to 1160/1162, before wave c-v-(5) heads towards 1173.

The alternate count now becomes very bullish in that the SP-500 just put in a set of nested 1-2’s for the beging of wave iii-(5).  So today’s action was wave 2-iii-(5) and the SP-500 is beginning at wave 3-iii-(5) that should target the 1185/1190 area in the next few days.  Ultimately this wave (5) could extend as high has 1132 +110 = 1242 if wave (5)=(3), however I think a target of 1200 to 1220 is more realistic.  That would put the top of wave 3-[1]-P3 at 1120 to 1220 by the mid-term elections.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=981a5364-1959-4100-8c8b-ac2abde128be

SP-500 15-mni chart (11:15 am):

10:00 am EST:   The drop today is wave iii-(a) of 4-[1]-P3 of the primary count.  I would expect the completion of wave (a) to break the 1151.41 support and test the 1145 area.   For the alternate count the wave iv-(5) of the ED must hold above 1151.41 to make a new high above 1168.68.  And for the alternate count, it should hold inside the lower blue channel line.

SP-500 min-chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=a28a19c1-1f11-48f1-87e8-dd91e61faaeb

SP-500 15-min chart (9:55 am):

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