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Oct 8th, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on October 8, 2010

11:20 am EST:  Here is the VIX falling wedge that has been on going since the April 2010 high of 1220.  If the VIX drops below 20.0, the bulls when a major battle in the war to break-out towards new highs above 1220.

VIX Daily Chart (11:10 am):

11:00 am EST:  Updated 5-min 15-min chart links.  Starting to break-out higher now to 1161, so maybe it’s a 3-v-(5) move after all.   VIX is getting hammered, down -3.2% to 20.87.   Bears have to be getting very nervous here.  If the VIX drops below the 19.5 to 20.0 range, it’s a major bull break-out confirmation.  And the SP-500 could extend well beyond 1177 in wave 3-[1]-P3 if the VIX breaks down.  Remember my 1190 to 1200 stretch target for this wave 3-[1]-P1.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e7fe52ad-8ac3-45e1-ad35-d33209faebb9

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fbba605e-0dbd-4ef0-becc-27578e4b2256

SP-500 5-min chart (11:00 am):

SP-500 15-min chart (10:55 am):

10:40 am EST:  Alternately, there could also be a wave iv-(5) contracting triangle forming over the past 3 days.  It might take most of today to play-out, leading to a big push higher on Monday/Tuesday next week.   This alternate triangle for wave iv-(5) has the same 1177 target for completion as the larger wave (4) triangle. 

If this alternate triangle wave iv-(5) count is correct, you might as well set your stops and go out and enjoy the nice weather.  Nothing significant is going to happen today.  It’s going to be 80 °F here in Chicago today and next 3 days!  Indian Summer has arrived in the upper Midwest.  🙂

SP-500 5-min chart (10:30 am):

 

10:10 am EST:  The SP-500 has hit 1161 in the cash market.    I’m thinking this might be the end of wave 1-v-(5) and we’ll see a pull-back to about 1155/1156 in wave 2-v-(5), before heading towards 1168 in wave 3-v-(5).  The SP-500 must remain above 1151.41 for this count to remain valid.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b38190ad-37df-48e2-b607-882e827d62f9

SP-500 5-min chart (10:00 am):

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