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Oct 7th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on October 7, 2010

6:00 pm EST: You can sign-up for the Premium Service for $15 for the final three weeks of October.  Just e-mail me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to get started.

5:40 pm EST:  The SP-500 tagged the 38% retrace today at 1151 in what looks like a double ZZ for wave iv-(5).  The SP-500 did hit a brief new high today at 1164.84 in the completion of an x-wave between the 1st and 2nd ZZ.  I’m looking for  continuation the bullish trend in a wave v-(5) towards at target between the 1168 and 1177 pivot resistance.  The only thing that would change my thinking about a higher, high above 1177 would be a decisive break above the upper yellow trend-line that has now held as resistance on four occasions over 2 weeks (see 15-min chart).  Breaking above this yellow upper trend-line could produce an upside surprise move to 1190 to 1200 over the coming couple of weeks for this wave v-(5).

To the downside, I don’t hold an alternate count at this time.  But a break below 1145/1150 support would get me thinking that wave v-(5) of 3-[1]-P3 is in the books and the SP-500 is working on wave 4-[1]-P3 as shown on my 60-min chart.  Note that the 13-day EMA has moved all the way up to 1144.  Since the 13-day vs 34-day EMA bull cross on Sept 10th, the SP-500 has stayed above the 13-day EMA.  This is the sign of a very strong bull run.   Any break of the 13-day EMA and close below it, would signal a potential near term trend change.  So watch this 1145/1150 area closely tomorrow on any further pull-back.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

 SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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