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Oct 6th, 2010: Update 3 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on October 6, 2010

4:50 pm EST:  Boring, slow “inside” day which typical of wave 4 price action.  The markets are digesting yesterday’s explosive +2% move.  

For the primary count it is possible wave iv-(5) completed today as 3-3-5 flat down from 1162.76 to 1154.84 (see the 5-min chart).   One of my wave iv-(5) targets was a 23% retrace to 1156, so it fits.  However, it’s also possible that more correction in wave iv-(5) is required and a double Zig-Zig down to the 1151 (38% retrace) will occur.  Today’s bounce off 1154.84 was not impressive and could only be a x-wave of an abc-x-abc corrective (see alternate count in blue).

In either case, I’m expecting wave v-(5) to reach the pivot resistance between 1168 and 1177 going into OPEX to complete wave 3-[1]-P3.  And as with any wave (5), there is always a possibly what it could extend.  In this case reaching the 1190 to 1200 area.

Any break down below 1150 and then the 1137 could signal a near-term trend change and the move up is over.  Final confirmation will require a break down of 1131 and then 1123.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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