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Oct 5th, 2010: SP-500 Weekly – Critical Juncture

Posted by pugsma on October 6, 2010

11:50 pm CST:  OK Bulls and Bears, we are at a very critical juncture here.  Taking a look at the SP-500 Weekly Chart with linear price scaling, you can see that the current price (1160) is right at the down sloping trend-line (red) that connects the Oct 2007 high (1575) with the Apr 2010 high (1220).  Price has also been bouncing off the up sloping trend-line (black) from the March 2009 low of 667.  Notice the “Diamond” Pattern that has formed over the past year from Oct 2009 to Oct 2010.  This type of Diamond Pattern in this position can form at “Half-Staff” or be a “Topping” pattern.  If its at half-staff, then we can expect another move out of diamond pattern of equal magnitude to the incoming move.  The incoming move was 1220-667 = 553.  So we can expect a measured move from 1011 + 553 = 1564, which takes the SP-500 back to it’s Oct 2007 high.

For the my primary count to be correct, the SP-500 needs to break through this down sloping (red) trend-line and move towards a new high above 1220 by end of 2010 in major degree wave [1]-P3.  From there, the SP-500 will be free to melt up in 5-waves of major degree within Primary Wave 3 (P3) to the old October 2007 high of 1575 over the next two years (see the green path on the weekly chart).

If however, the SP-500 fails to push through the down sloping (red) trend-line in the next few weeks to a month.  Then there is a good possibility that Primary Wave 2 (P2) will need to make a deeper correction below 1011.  In this case the move from 1220 to 1011 was only major degree [A]-P2 and the subsequent move from 1011 to 1163 was wave [B]-P2.  The next move will be a [C]-P2 drop to 954 (if [C]=[A]=209 points) over the next 2 to 3 months.  This 954 level would be a 50% retrace of P1 in price and time.  I’m calling this my alternate bearish view, in case the SP-500 fails to move higher than this 1163 to 1177 area in the next few weeks to month.  If the SP-500 falls to this 954 level for my alternate P2 low, then the P3 move to old high of 1575 will just be delayed by about 3 to 6 months in time (see the red path on the weekly chart).

SP-500 Weekly Chart (10-5-10):

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