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Oct 5th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD – Got Bull?

Posted by pugsma on October 5, 2010

4:30 pm EST:  Booya!  Bulls push the bears over the edge and break the 1150 resistance, hitting 1162.73 intra-day and closing at 1160.74.

The corrective mess from Sept 21st to Oct 4th, is anyone’s guess on how to count properly.  It suffices to say that it was a complex corrective wave (4) and once the IHS neckline support at 1131 held for a third time yesterday, the bulls charged ahead and routed the bears with a 31 point gain (+2.7%) from 1132 to 1163 in just a little over one trading session.

For the primary count (only count) I wave (4) complete at 1131.86 from yesterday morning as an ascending triangle count.  This wave (4) triangle has measured move target of 1150 + (1150 – 1123) = 1177.  So, I’m expecting wave (5) of 3-[1]-P2 to reach at least 1177 over the next week.  This should time out with another bullish OPEX week ending on Oct 15th.  As of today, I have wave iii-(5) complete at 1162.76 at the upper trend-line resistance.  I’m looking for a wave iv-(5) consolidation above the 1150 support level.  However, wave iii-(5) could certainly extend up to the 1168 pivot resistance tomorrow.  And wave v-(5) could extend past the 1177 pivot resistance.  I think a good upside surprise target for v-(5) is 1190 to 1200.

Longer term I’m still looking for major degree wave [1]-P3 to reach at least 1251 by the end of 2010 to early 2011.  And as an alternate view this wave up to 1251 could be wave [5]-P1 if P1 did not end at 1220 in April 2010.  These counts are essentially the same up until we reach 1251.  After we reach 1251 and begin to correct, we will be able to differentiate between them once the depth of the next significant correction plays-out.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

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