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Sept 28th, 2010: Update 4- EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 28, 2010

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5:30 pm EST:  After the morning drop to 1132 for wave ii-(3), the SP-500 rebounded in the beginning of wave iii-(3) and hit a new recovery high today of 1150.00.   The SP-500 continues to put in higher lows (see the 15-min chart), which is extremely bullish.  Also, the QQQQ’s put in a “Golden Cross” today with the 50-day SMA moving back above the 200-day SMA.  The DOW-30 is within 25 point so achieving it’s “Golden Cross” and the SP-500 is not far behind.

For the primary count today’s low of 1132.02 was wave ii-(3) and the move higher to 1150 was wave 1-iii-(3).  I’m looking for  wave 2-iii-(3) pull-back to about 1141, before wave 3-iii-(3) heads towards 1170 (i.e. 3=1.62*1).  Ultimately wave iii-(3) should target the 1174 area (i.e. wave iii=1.62*i), which is between the 1168 and 1177 longer term pivot resistance.  Notice on the 15-min chart the SP-500 has maintained the upper half of the price channel, even with the drop to 1132 today.  Today was also another successful back-test of the large IHS neckline at 1131.

The alternate count (blue) of the flat for wave (2) as labeled was invalidated with the move above 1149.92 this afternoon.  However, it’s possible that this move up today was actually only wave b-(2) and we will still get a wave c-(2) down to 1123 later this week.  This count is much less likely now, but it should be monitored as long as the 1150 area holds as resistance.

The 13-day EMA has moved all the way up to 1129 now and has been supportive of this move higher since the 13 over 34-day EMA bull-cross on Sept 10th.

SP-500 5-min chart  (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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