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Sept 27th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 27, 2010

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5:40 pm EST:  The primary count is that the SP-500 is correcting in wave ii-(3) with a target between 1133 (62%) and 1140 (3%).  I believe the SP-500 will hold above the 1137 pivot support (50% retrace) and move aggressively higher in a wave iii-(3).  It should also hold above the mid-channel line.  Now that 1149 has been labeled as the top of wave i-(3), the wave iii-(3) target has been down graded a bit to 1181, where iii=1.62*i.   There is a strong pivot resistance in the 1168 to 1177 band.  The SP-500 remains in the upper half of the aggressive upward channel above all key support levels, so I see no reason change from this primary count.

The alternate count (blue) is that today’s high of 1149.92 was the b-(2) wave of a flat for the wave (2) correction.  The correction that began late this afternoon would be a c-(2) wave that would end near support at 1123.  Wave c-(2) should be an impulsive 5-wave move down.  This wave (2) would produce a second back-test of the 1131 inverse head and shoulders neckline before launching upward in a wave (3).  This wave (2) flat would also test the lower channel line.

I have removed the 2nd alternate count (red).  I will revisit it, if support at 1137 and then 1123 fails.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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