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Sept 23rd, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on September 23, 2010

12:00 pm EST:  And in case you missed it late last night; here is my road map to the end of the year on the 60-min chart.  Obama and the dems gets a new SP-500 recovery high slightly above 1220 by the mid-term elections. But unemployment will still be near 10%.  So the repubs and tea-party gain some seats in Congress allowing the market to take a breather before one more push higher in the Santa Rally to 1251.   consolidation around the IHS neck-line of 1131 is the key and no breach below the important 1090 pivot support.

SP-500 60-min chart (11:55 am):

 

11:45 am EST:  The primary count is that wave (2) is going to play out as a flat (i.e. 3-3-5 wave structure).  Today’s low of 1123 was wave a-(2).  I’m now expecting a re-test of the 1150 area in wave b-(2).  Then we have a retrace back to the 1123 low in a wave c-(2).  This will take several days to complete and should last into the first week of October.  Wave (2) will act as a consolidation period around the key 1131 IHS neck-line breakout as the wave across the larget channel in time.  After wave (2) completes, the wave (3) should head towards the 1200 to 1220 area has the Q3 earnings news move the markets higher.

The alternate count is that we are in wave c-(2) down toward 1107 for 38% retrace of wave (1).  This count becomes invalid with a breach above 1137.22.  As I’m typing the SP-500 has already hit 1136.77, so it’s very close to be eliminated.  The pivot resistance is right here at 1137, so it must hold as resistance for a deeper wave (2) retrace to materialize.

SP-500 5-min real-time chart: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e3ecf529-55bf-4b37-8d21-1b14aa20baa8

SP-500 15-min real-time chart: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d969e8b0-fa25-456c-85bf-a395194772d2

SP-500 5-min chart (11:20 am):

SP-500 15-min chart (11:20 am):

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