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Sept 21st, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 21, 2010

5:25 pm EST:  Here is the updated 5-min chart, EOD.  The key to watch tomorrow to help distinguish between the two counts is the 1127.36 level. A break below 1127.36 would eliminate the alternate count (on a wave 4 into 1 violation) and mean the wave (2) correction is underway.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

4:20 pm EST:  Nothing new after the bell.  The Federal Government stands ready to keep the economy moving forward.  I’m very conformable with my year-end target of 1251.

For the primary count I’m expected this afternoon’s sell-off to continue and the SP-500 will correct in a wave (2) down to the 1097 (50%) to 1107 (38%) area of the 1107 pivot support by late in the week.  This is when the dip buyers that missed most of the run from 1040 to 1149 will step in and start the next leg higher to over 1200, likely to 1220.

The alternate count is the this wave v-(1) will hold support above the 1127 to 1130 break-out area and continue to push for a high near 1170 by the end of this week or early next week.  The 1170 target is where the wave v=iii, 5th wave extension would end.  For this alternate count the wave (2) pull-back that follows in early Oct will hold above the 1127 to 1130 neckline area.

Both counts are likely so for probabilities, I have the primary count at about 60/40 over the alternate. 

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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