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Sept 20th, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-market

Posted by pugsma on September 20, 2010

7:05 am EST:  Dec ES Futures have traded up to 1126 (1131 cash equiv) overnight.  It’s clear based the ES overnight action that there will likely be no significant selling before the Tuesday Sept 21st US FOMC meeting announcement.  I now expect things to hang around the 1131 neckline and maybe even test the 1138 pivot resistance in the cash market (as it was tested in the ES market on Friday overnight hours).  The lower trend-line on the ES and cash market charts is still intact.  A break-below Friday’s cash market low of 1122 would be bearish, breaking the lower trend-line and could signal the drop to 1107 is under way.

The combination of the OPEX Friday (Sept 17th) and FOMC meeting announcement (Tues Sept 21st) being just two trading days later have pinned the SP-500 at the top of 4 month old trading range of 1040 to 1131.  The FOMC announcement will be used as the catalyst for the next significant directional move.  The SP-500 charts are set-up to break out in either direction as I discussed over the weekend.  We just have to be patient and see how the week unfolds to gain some clues on the direction.   I’m predicting a pull-back to towards the 1090 to 1107 pivot area support before the next big push higher towards 1251 into the end of the year.  But there are other more bearish scenario’s that could play out, as I discussed this weekend.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=98cf609f-2111-4862-b44e-0dcd82f20b90

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=46168cec-17a5-42b6-bf96-ed4e196a3beb

ES Futures (6:25 am):

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