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Sept 14th, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on September 14, 2010

11:10 am EST:  Here is a new scenario to consider.  What if the move  from 1111 to 1124 was only wave 1 of v-(1)?  Then the 8 point retrace to 1116 was wave 2 of v-(1), which is about a 62% retrace.  This fits much better than the wave 4 of v-(1) retrace to 1116 as it’s too deep for a wave 4.  So now we are begging a wave 3 of v-(1) with a target above 1130.  And ultimately, wave 5 of 1-(1) would reach 1135 to has high as 1150 by OPEX Friday.  This is my new alternate count.  And the primary count is that we are in wave 5 of v-(1) now headed for 1129 today or tomorrow.  See the revised 5-min chart below.

This new alternate scenario would absolutely crush the perma-bear spirits if it comes to pass.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=9363955e-efa5-44c8-be0e-43a001144e03

SP-500 5-min chart (11:00 am):

 

10:15 am EST:  The SP-500 dropped to 1115.58 and tested the yellow trend-line support.  Notice this is right where I placed a wave 4-v-(1) label for the alternate count on my 5-min chart below ( I did not move any labels).  If the market can hold support above the 1111 to 1113 gap, then a higher high before OPEX Friday is still possible.

Any break below 1111, invalidates the alternate count and confirms an aggressive move down in wave (2) is very likely underway.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:00 am):

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