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Sept 13th, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-market

Posted by pugsma on September 13, 2010

7:25 am EST:  Sept ES Futures have traded up to 1122 (1122 cash equivalent).  Clearly we have a break-out above resistance at 1110 of the wave iv-(1) ascending triangle that we were watching on Friday.  The triangle target is 1110 + (1110-1091) = 1129.

It would appear we are in wave 3 or v-(1) having already hit 1122 and backed off to 1119 in the ES futures.  Wave 4 of v-(1) should stay above the open gap of 1110 to 1112 today, which is also were wave 1 of v-(1) resides.  And wave 4 of v-(1) will likely stay above 1115, which is the 200-day SMA.  The 200-day SMA should now start to act as support after be gapped up and over in the ES futures.  I’m looking for wave v-(1) to reach the triangle target of 1129, which is the Aug 12th high resistance and the large inverse head and shoulders neckline.

After reaching 1129 for wave (1), I have wave (2) retrace targets of 1096 (38%) and 1085 (50%).  I think we should reach 1129 by mid-week and then could retrace towards 1096 by OPEX Friday.  Notice on the 15-min chart that 1096 is where the broken down channel line (purple) will reside by about Friday.  But keep in mind that for the primary count bigger picture, we in a wave 3-[1]-P3 up.  And inside a wave 3, retraces can be very shallow.  So don’t expect a big wave (2) retrace, as 1096 would likely be about it.  The wave 3-[1]-P3 target is the 1170 pivot.  And the wave 5-[1]-P3 target is the 1251 inverse head and shoulder target by the end of the 2010.

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=07ac6001-167a-4f45-a00c-9889fad24765

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=5d2b3730-f1f0-440e-ad38-9efbe1cb854a

ES Futures (6:30 am):

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