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Sept 10th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD – Bulls Advance

Posted by pugsma on September 10, 2010

9-11-10 9:55 am EST:  I’m offering the blance of September (14 trading days) and all of October for a prorated fee of $30.  Basically, you are paying full price for October and getting September (14 trading days for free).  Just drop me an e-mail at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to sign up.

6:55 pm EST:  In honor of the man, Drew Brees (fellow Purdue Alum) and the New Orleans Saints winning their opening 2010 NFL game in defense of their Super Bowl Title, please enjoy this Better Than Ezra Video, “King of New Orleans”.

5:35 pm EST:  After a correction to begin the trading week the bulls continued to advance the ball down field are now in red zone (inside the opponents 20 yard line) and are positioned to score a Touch Down (TD), i.e. push above the 1131 inverse head and shoulders neckline.

Late in the week, I was expecting a wave (2) pull back to the 1087 area, but it never materialized.  The SP-500 has continued to wedge higher and hit 1110.88 today.  The SP-500 closed above the key 1107 pivot at 1109.55, which is very bullish.  And it looks like the there is a potential bullish, ascending triangle (i.e. 3-3-3-3-3- waves) formed of the past 2 trading days.  This would be a wave iv-(1) triangle continuation pattern and it would imply at least a 14 point push higher 1110+14 => 1124.  This is not my primary count, but it’s now listed on the 5 and 15-min char charts as a bullish alternate (in blue).  OPEX weeks have resolved to the bullish side since the March 2009 bottom, so we need to keep this alternate count in mind.

The primary count is a that wave v-(1) is playing out an ending diagonal (i.e. 3-3-3-3-3 waves) and it’s in wave 5 of v-(1) with a maximum upside target of 1114.  So, it may very well be complete today at 1111.   A break above 1114 on Monday, would make the bullish alternate  count of the ascending triangle more likely.  Once we find the end of this wave v-(1), I’m still looking for  a wave (2) pull-back of at least 38% to the 1083 to 1092 area depending on if 1111 is the end of v-(1) or if it extends in the alternate count to 1124.

There is an important development on the daily chart for the bulls.  The 13-day EMA has now crossed above the 34-day EMA at 1084, so we have an important daily chart bullish cross.  And on the weekly chart the SP-500 closed above the 50-week SMA of 1105.  This is yet another bullish indicator.

There are some negative indicators like the MACD and RSI negative divergence with price on the shorter time frame charts.  And of course the McClellan Oscillator and Dr Copper are showing negative divergence with SP-500 price.  These negative divergence could be wiped out with a big surge higher early next week (i.e the alternate count). Or they could play-out if we get the wave (2) pull-back to the 1083 to 1092 area early next week.

The bottom line is that the bulls have won the battle for two weeks in a row.  The bulls have closed the SP-500 above the April high down channel line two consecutive days.  The bulls are in position to make a run for the goal-line of the 1130 area.  If the bulls can muster more strength in the next two to three weeks, they can severely damage the perma-bears P3 down scenario, and set in motion the move towards 1251 toward the end of year.

Have great weekend.  I’m going to enjoy some more high school football for my son this week; his team is undefeated through 2 games.  And of course my Saints (and Drew Brees) won their NFL opener last night.  Finally, I’m looking for my Boilermakers to untracked after a poor showing at ND this past weekend.  Stocks Up!  Boiler Up!  Hammer Down!  🙂

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

SP-500 Weekly chart (EOD):

SP-500 Monthly chart (EOD):

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