PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500, QQQ, IWM, Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more.

Sept 10th, 2010: Update 2 – Mid-day/Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on September 10, 2010

3:50 pm EST:  With the breach of 1110.27, the expanded flat count is out.  However this move higher can be counted as a 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal (bearish rising wedge) for wave v-(1).  In which case wave 5 of v-(1) should end at less than 1114.  So it’s over or about over here at 1111.  A break above 1114 confirms the alternate bullish ascending triangle with a target of at least 1124 going into next week.

SP-500 5-min chart (3:45 pm):


2:05 pm EST:  If this is the alternate count of the bullish ascending triangle.  Watch for a possible fake out where the (e) wave dips below the yellow trend-line then breaks out to the upside above 1110.27.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

12:05 pm EST:  I have one of two scenarios playing out for next week, OPEX. 

Primary count (white): they hold it up between 1105 and 1110 the rest of today and then drop it like a stone going into Monday/Tuesday in a c-wave of a 3-3-5 expanded flat for wave (2).  Initial target would be 1087 for c=1.62.  But it could retrace deeper toward the 50% target of 1075.

Alternate count (blue):  An bullish, continuation ascending triangle for wave iv-(1) is playing out.  They will hold in here between 1105 and 1110 the rest of the day pulling in the e-wave of the 3-3-3-3-3 triangle.  Then on Monday they begin to pop it above 1110 and towards a minimum triangle target of 1124 for wave v-(1).  Once they get it up to 1124 to fill the 1117 to 1121 gap, they’ll try to hold it here going into OPEX friday.  They may even be able to push it up to the Inverse Head and Shoulders Neck line of 1130.

Which one of these two options will playsout?  All of the afore mentioned negative divergences keep me in favor of my primary count.  And a break below the 1098 to 1101 will confirm the primary count that we headed lower in wave (2).  If it wasn’t OPEX next week, I’d be a lot more confident in my primary count.  But OPEX weeks have resolved to the bullish bias ever since the March 2009 low of 666.

As I was writing this update, we are starting to break-down a bit.  So we’ll see…

SP-500 5-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=60e27a7e-c158-477c-95e5-ada305da8a72

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=73beb9ca-2ce4-4e99-ba79-39824b5c6e4e

SP-500 5-min chart (11:45 am):

SP-500 15-mi chart (11:45 am):

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

%d bloggers like this: