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Sept 7th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 7, 2010

5:10 pm EST:  In support of the market’s fall today to my 1090 target, please enjoy this tune “I’m Falling” by Robyn Hitchcock and the Vensus 3 from the Goodnight Oslo Album.

4:35 pm EST:  Today went very much as planned.  My forecast for today was a wave iv-(1) pull-back to 1090 (23% retrace) based on my Friday Sept 3rd EOD update.  Today the SP-500 pulled back from 1105 to 1091, so right at my 1090 target.    The 1090 to 1094 gap from Friday is 75% closed.  There could be a small drop in the morning to the 1088/89 area, before wave v-(1) up gets underway.  My target for wave v-(1) is 1112, where wave v=i.  The 200-day SMA is at 1115 and should provide resistance on the next move higher.  The 50-day SMA is at 1082 and should provide support on any drop lower from here.

Also, note that on the 15-min chart there is a small bullish falling wedge pattern in-play for this wave iv-(1) pull-back.  And the MACD is about to achieve a bull cross, that should correspond to the wave v-(1) upward swing.  However, I expect this next move higher to 1112 to set-up a double negative divergence on the MACD, leading to a the wave (2) pull-back towards 1060 to 1070 going into next week.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

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