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Sept 3rd, 2010: Update 5 – EOD – Bulls are Back

Posted by pugsma on September 3, 2010

7:00 am EST (9-4-10):  I unprotected all the premium posts from this past week, so that prospective new subcribers can see what the the intra-day updates are like.

5:40 pm EST:  I’m offering Sept Premium service at a reduced rate of $25 ($5 savings to $30 monthly rate). Or another option is to join for Sept and Oct for $40 ($20 savings to $30 monthly rate). Just drop me an e-mail at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com  to sign up.

Enjoy this Arcade Fire Video – “Ready to Start” – As we start a new bull market leg up!

5:30 pm EST:  OK, I must admit this was one of the most fun weeks to analyze and trade the market in a long time.   Remember this call from my EOD  “free post”  Tuesday Aug 31st ?  Did you profit from it?  I certainly hope so, as I did.

Aug 31st, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 31, 2010

7:00 pm EST:  In anticipation of the SP-500 heading back to it’s “HOME” position near 1105, here is one of my favorite bands the Freddy Jones Band performing “Home Thing” Live at the North Avenue Beach in Chicago.

5:25 pm EST:  Well, another mixed up day to end August; how appropriate.   The SP-500 again tested the 1040 support and held (not once but twice) today.  The first test came early in the morning at 1040.88 and the second one came late  in the trading day at 1044.02.  Not to mention, there was also a test of ES 1037.50 (1039.50 cash equiv) over night.  Notice each test was a successfully a higher low.   That’s bullish.  That’s 3 tests of the 1040 support in under 24 hours that held.  Someone (PPT) or something (GS Computer) does not want to let 1040 fell.  That is very good news for the bulls.  And as one subscriber put it:  “The bears better break 1040 today or the bulls are going to take their drinks and their prom date too.”  Go Bulls!   Or as as I’m like to say: “Stocks Up!, Boiler Up!  Hammer Down!”

The primary count is that sub-minuette wave 3-iii-(1)-3-[1]-P3 is underway after sub-minuette wave 2-iii-(1) bottomed at 1044.02 late this afternoon.  I have a target of between 1067 and 1074 for this wave 3-iii-(1).  And for wave 5-iii-(1) I have a target of 1086 to 1094.  Finanlly, I’m looking for wave (1)-3-[1]-P3 to reach 1100 to 1110 shortly after the Labor Day weekend (Sept 7th to 10th). 

Now that was a pretty good road map for the past 3 days, eh?  🙂 

OK back to today, Sept 3rd.  The primary count is that wave iii-(1)-3-[1]-P3 ended at 1105 this morning.  The wave we are in now is a corrective wave iv-(1) and I expect this wave-iv to trade in the 1090 to 1105 range until it breaks to the upside to complete wave v-(1) near 1110 to 1115 next week.  The 23% retrace of wave iii-(1) for wave iv-(1) is 1090 and the 38% retrace is 1081.   Support is at the 50-day SMA at 1081 and the next key resistance is at the 200-day SMA at 1115.  So this support and resistance agrees wth count.

I’m also looking at the resistance from the upper bear channel trendline from the April 2010 high.  This trendline was hit right at the open today at 1105.  We may breifly break through this trendline in wave v-(1) next week.  I also have an inverse head and shoulders upward sloping neckline near 1110.  I think we test this neckline and then back off towards 1060 to 1070 for wave (2)-3-[1]-P3 going into mid-September (See 15-min and 60-min charts).  This will form a nice right shoulder and set the market up for the next push higher.  The inverse head and shoulder target is 1110 + (1110-1040) => 1180.  But this inverse head and shoulder will break the neckline of bigger head and shoulders neckline at 1131 that targets 1251 the end of 2010.

One other intesting thing to notice is that on the Weekly Chart the SP-500 closed right at the 50-week moving average at 1104.  This should also provide some resistance going into next week.  So the odds favor that after one more attempt to push above 1105, the SP-500 should take a break and retrace back towards 1060 to 1070 in order to pick-up some new buyers.  The 5-min and 15-min charts show negative divergence on the MACD vs price, so we are short term over bought.

I wish everyone a FUN and SAFE Labor Day Weekend !

SP-500 5-min Chart (EOD):


SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60 min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Monthly Chart (EOD):

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