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Sept 3rd, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on September 3, 2010

11:45 pm EST:  Here is the updated 60-min chart.   You can really see on this chart how the SP-500 tagged the April high bear trend line at 1105 this morning.   Obvioulsy just looking at this upper trendline resistance the short term over-bought conditions, means there is more risk to the downside right now, versus the upside potential in the near term.  This is why we need a wave 4 to burn off these over bought conditions and reset the oscillators on the 15-min and 60-min charts.

SP-500 60-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=546c9423-5812-4be4-9c7b-f2515da3b299

SP-500 60-min chart (11:13 am):

 

10:55 am EST:  OK, who was it that called 1105 by Labor Day?    The SP-500 tagged 1105.10 this morning.  I hate it when I’m wrong by 0.009% or 90 ppm (i.e. that’s parts per million for the non-scientific types in the audience.)  🙂

OK, so wave iii-(1) wanted to extend and it climbed all the way up to 1105.1.  I believe we have started a wave iv-(1) correction.  The targets range from 1090 (23% retrace) to 1081 (38% retrace).   We might expect some type of triangle to form here between 1081 and 1105 that could drag on for several trading days and work it’s way in time across the channel.  We have a gap up this morning between 1090 and 1094 to fill and serve as support.  And we have the bear trend line from the April high of 1220 just  above here to act as resistance.  In fact this trendline was tagged at 1105 this morning.  Also we have the 20-day and 50-day SMA around 1081 to serve as support.  If we can hold above 1081, we have a real chance at breaking the bear trend line and heading for the 200-day SMA at 1116 for the completion of wave v-(1)-3.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1bd2b8b9-ebfd-4798-aea2-718e8e399b06

SP-500 15-min chart (10:40 am):

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