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Aug 27th, 2010: Update 4 – Afternoon & EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 27, 2010

4:20 pm EST:  If anyone new to the PUG Premium Service would like to try the final 2 trading day of August for free, I will provide you the August password, if you will subscribe for Septmber at a reduced monthly rate of $25 (normally $30) or for September/October at a reduced rate of $40 (normally $50).  E-mail me a pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to get started.

4:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 closed near the high (1065.21) of the day at 1064.59, which makes a “perfect” double bottom set of hammer candles on the SP-500 at the key support of 1040.

The primary (and only count) is that the move up today is wave i-(1)-3-[1]-P3.  This wave i-(1) looks like it could be over here at 1065 or it could get one more push up to the 1070 area on Monday.  Assuming the that 1065 is the high, I have wave ii-(1) retrace targets of 1050 (62%) to 1053 (50%).   But I would not be surprised if the retrace stayed above the 1057 pivot (38% retrace is 1056).

Well, I’m headed out for some Friday Night High School Football.  Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

 

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD:

 

3:35 pm EST:  One thing I noticed this afternoon on the SP-500 daily chart (see below) is just how “perfect” the double bottom at 1040 fits in with a back-test of the bullish falling wedge for P2 and the bull market lower channel line.  Also, doesn’t the revised daily chart look so much nicer without all those bearish alternate count red labels on it.  🙂

1:30 pm EST:  I’m officially calling the 1039.70 low, the end of the wave 2-[1]-P3 correction.  It fits perfect with the leading diagonal (LD) wave 1-[1]-P3 count, as we’d expect a 78% (1037) retrace of the LD.  Also, the wave (c)=(a) target for wave 2-[1]-P3 was 1040.  We now have a double bottom in place at the key 1040 support.   On the 15-min chart, I’m looking for a level of 1100 for wave (1)-3-[1]-P3 by the Labor Day Weekend.

The daily chart sports a double HAMMER at 1040 and an inverse head and shoulders with a target of 1251.  I expect the SP-500 to reach the 1251 target by the end of 2010.  The Full STO on the daily chart has double bottom and a bull cross.  The MACD signal line bottomed on the positive divergence slope from the July 1st low and histogram is turning back up.  I’m expecting after the close today the McClellan Oscillator to show a positive divergence with the new SP-500 price low today.  The McClellan Oscillator loves to show a positive divergence a key market bottoms.

I’m eliminating the bearish alternate count (in red) that called for new SP-500 low below 1011 for P2.   I believe the Primary Wave 2 (P2) low of the new secular bull market is in place at 1011 from July 1st, 2010 at the 38% retrace of P1.   Worse case I can see is a slightly revised alternate count to the existing primary count with a new low between 1011 and 1040, if today’s 1039.70 low is breached.  But I won’t show that count until it’s required.

Finally in honor of my 14 year old son, who is starting at running back for one of the largest high schools in Chicagoland in his first high school game tonight, I put up this Friday Nights Lights Movie Trailer.  My son’s been playing tackle football since the age of 8 in the tough south Chicagoland youth league.  The coaches labeled him the THE HAMMER during his first season playing as linebacker and running back.  Nobody wants to get in hit by THE HAMMER.  Especialy not the perma-bears.  Good luck tonight Tony!  Run some of those bears over for me.   🙂

SP-500 15-min chart (12:45 pm):

SP-500 60-min Chart (1:45 pm):

SP-500 Daily Candle Chart (12:46 pm): 

SP-500 Daily Chart (3:30 pm):

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