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Aug 19th, 2010: Update 3 – Morning 2

Posted by pugsma on August 19, 2010

11:30 am EST:  The VIX is right at a critical area today as well as the SP-500.  If the VIX moves decisively above the 50-day SMA of 25.88 and breaks the bullish falling wedge, it could explode higher as the SP-500 drops.  The VIX MACD had a bull cross a few days back and the RSI has maintained above 50 in bullish territory.

VIX Daily Candles (11:26 am):

11:05 am EST:  SP-500 is right at a critical level around 1076.  There is a head and shoulders neckline at 1073, that if broken projects to 997 (see daily candles chart).  Also, as shown on my 60-min chart from the 8/18 EOD report, the primary count in white must hold the 1069 low from Monday to be valid.  A drop below 1069 and the alternate count in blue which calls for a low between 1037 and 1056 is in play.  And a drop below 1037 and the alternate count in red that calls for a low around 950 is in play.

Finally, if the SP-500 stays below the 50-day SMA at the close today, then the 13 vs 34-day EMA bear cross will be sealed.  This would be very bearish for the intermediate term and would make the 7/26 bull cross a potential “fake-out” move.  This plays into the alternate count in red, which targets a new P2 low below 1011.

SP-60 min chart (10:05 am):

SP-500 Daily Candles Chart (10:45 am):

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