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Aug 19th, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on August 19, 2010

8:20 am EST:  Initial Unemployment Claims back at 500,000 will be big barrier for the bull scenario (i.e. primary count).  ES drop from 8 handles on this news.   ES has traded from 1095 to down 1083 (1098 down to 1086 cash). 

Remember from my EOD update yesterday, I was calling for a test of at least 1085 today and maybe 1081.  That seems likely at or near the open.  If it can find support there, then maybe they can run it make up a bit towards 1097 the day before OPEX and with POMO equitiy buyging.  Max Pain for for SPY is 110 or SPX 1097.

If they can’t hold 1081, then it opens the door to test 1069 and maybe 1057.  Remember the 13 vs 34-day EMA bear cross is likely to happen today on any close that is below the 50-day SMA of 1088.  This would obvisously be bad news for the bull scenario in the near to intermediate term.  It would make the 1st alternate count (in blue) more likely that calls for a dip to 1036 to 1057 before a resumption of my upward price action.   And once we get below 1057 it would make the 2nd alternate count (in red) a higer probablity that calls for new lows below 1011.   But let’s see how it reacts today and tomorrow around 1081 to 1085 first.

SP-500 15-min real-time chart link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e045fe45-50bf-4a10-9fc7-6d92140380d9

ES Futures (9:02 am):

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