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Aug 18th, 2010: Update 3 – Morning 2

Posted by pugsma on August 18, 2010

12:00 pm EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart with the new alternate count in blue.  Both of the alternate counts call for the same 5 wave impulse lower without breaking above 1100.  The bullish primary count will be strengthened significantly with the completion of a 5th wave move above 1100.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=7abe68c6-5c92-4c9f-ae1c-91dea8ec8fff

 SP-500 15-min Chart (11:55 am):

 

11:00 am EST:  Not to try and confuse everyone too much, but for completeness sake I want to show this count.  There is one other variant to the bullish primary count, that is bearish near term but bullish intermediate term. It would be that wave 2-[1]-P3 did not complete at 1069.   Near term we would be looking for a wave 2-[1]-P3 drop a target area of 1056 (62% retrace wave 1-[1]) to 1037 (78% retrace).  This count is shown in blue as an alternate to the primary count.  It has wave (a) of 2-[1] at the 1069 low from Monday morning,  Then wave (b) up to 1100 yesterday afternoon.  Now we should be expecting a wave (c) down to complete wave 2-[1]-P3 at 1040 to 1057.   If wave (c)=(a), we have a target of 1040. 

One of my subscribers (Jeff ) and I have been discussing this count via e-mail.   It would scare the bulls to death and excite the bears into thinking the next big leg down has begun.  So it does make some sense.   Jeff has been expecting this count to bottom near the Aug 23rd a cycle low area.  So it would complete shortly after OPEX Friday.

Just something else to watch, if we head below the 1079 to 1081 gap.

SP-500 60-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=7a80970b-d721-46db-85ee-586704fde169

SP-500 60-min chart (10:50 am):

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