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Aug 17th, 2010: Update 3 – Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on August 17, 2010

12:10 pm EST:  Note the 13-day EMA is at 1099 and the 34-day EMA is at 1097 today.   This is a big time confluence with the 50% retrace of 1099.  Remember, below or above the 13-day EMA is the separation between bear and bull.   If the bears are going to be make a stand, this is where it should be.  There are likely a lot of stops on shorts set near 1099.  Could provide some fuel of a push higher if we get another set of popped stops here at 1099.  There was clearly a first set of popped stops at 1088 to 1092 earlier today.

SP-500 Daily 13 vs 34-day EMA (12:10 pm):

12:05 pm EST:   Well with the decisive push past 1092 (38% retrace), we have to look to the 50% retrace target of 1099 and even the 62% retrace target of 1106.  Also,  I have reduced the down channel slope for the alternate count to be more in-line with the wave 1-[C]-P2 low of 1069.  This is in-line with my 15-min chart channel slope form yesterday’s EOD update.

This move today looks like a classic short-term short sqeeze.   However, if the bulls can find some more energy today or the rest of the week, they have the opportunity to rip the bears hearts right out through their throats.   If the bulls can push the SP-500 back above the 200-day SMA at 1114, they will have reversed all of the technical damage from this past week.   And they will have saved the 13 vs 34-day EMA bull cross that occurred back in late July.  Essentially the primary count will be alive and well for a slow climb up the a wall of worry this fall. 

Also, it should be noted that the DOW-30 NEVER closed under it’s 50-day SMA during this drop that end yesterday morning.  So the technical damage on the DOW-30 was far less.

SP-500 15-min chart with MACD real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8b7a7bec-9fd8-4a26-9569-901e81ffdf8a

SP-500 60-min chart with MACD real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0abc31fc-80d4-4195-843c-16b6425d9c8f

SP-500 15-min Chart with MACD (11:50 am):

SP-500 60-min Chart with MACD (11:50 am):

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