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Aug 10th, 2010: Update 4 – Late PM

Posted by pugsma on August 10, 2010

11:55 pm EST:  If the ES Futures don’t break down into the 1099 to 1104 gap overnight, here is a count that looks good.  It would be a wave iv triangle with the e-leg breaking the lower trend line at ES 1110 (i.e. an e-leg fake-out break down).   This wave iv triangle works with both the primary and alternate counts.   However,  for the primary count, the wave iv triangle would have to be part of wave 1-(3)-3, and not 3-(3)-3 as I had it labeled EOD.  So we’d be looking for a 20 point pop up to ES 1135 (1138 cash) to complete wave 1-(3)-3.  Then we get a small correction in wave 2-(3)-3 to re-test the broken neckline at ES 1128 (1131) before real deal wave 3-(3)-3 got underway that targets the 1150 top 1170 area.

For the alternate count this wave iv triangle would be part of wave (5)-1-[1].  Again with a pop to about ES 1135 (1138) to complete the wave.  Then we get the big drop back down to the 1036 to 1069 area to correct the this bearish rising wedge, leading diagonal count.

ES Future (11:22 pm):

9:00 pm EST:  It’s only an hour after the post-market closed and the ES Futures are breaking down below the lower trend line at ES 1111.   If this break down continues overnight and ES breaks through the gap at 1099 to 1104 it is going to be a very ugly open in the morning.   The alternate count of the leading diagonal for 1-[1]-P3 would be in play and a first target would be at ES 1081 (1084 cash).

ES Futures (8:47 pm):

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