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July 8th, 2010: SP-500 Weekly Candles

Posted by pugsma on August 8, 2010

11:25 pm EST:  The SP-500 week chart is turning bullish.  The Full STO oscillator achieved a bull-cross in mid-July at the same time the MACD histrogram bars bottomed.  Now the MACD signal line is close to reaching a bull cross and the histogram is about to go into the bullish zone above zero.  Finally the RSI is back in bull territory above 50. 

As one of our subscribers (Dave) pointed out this week the 100-week SMA has acted as support since October 2009 and the 200-week SMA as resistance.  Now that the SP-500 has climbed back above the 50-week SMA (1101) and held this level on Friday’s drop to 1107, the next intermediate term target area is around 1200 for a test of the 200-week SMA.  This agrees with the primary count for a wave [1]-P3 target of 1200 to 1250.  I’m expecting [1]-P3 to end in late Aug to early Sept.  Then wave [2]-P3 should have a volitale and deep correction of 50 to 62% of [1]-P3.   So let’s assume [1]-P3 ends near 1200 in late August, then the wave [2]-P3 targets would be 1083 to 1105 in mid to late October.  Then after the mid-term elections wave [3]-P3 should get underway and target the 1400 to 1600 area by late 2011 to mid-2012.  This is all in line with my long-term bull model orginally drafted in August of 2009 with the SP-500 trading in the low 900’s.

SP-500 Weekly Candle Chart (EOD 8-6-10): 

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