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Aug 4th, 2010: Update 4 – Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on August 4, 2010

2:20 pm EST:  The bulls certainly are not giving up on pushing this a little higher today.  It now looks like a possible ascending triangle with a flat top at 1127 and target of 1137 if it completes.  This ramp to 1137 would be the end of wave 1-(3)  or it could just break down from here at 1127 in a wave 2-(3).  It will be an interesting close today.

Also realize that the 15-min charting of the daily squiggles  showing a possible pop to 1137, does not change the fact that there is a MACD triple negative divergence built up over serveral weeks on the 60-min chart, which is bearish.  And the obvious bearish rising wedge on the 60-min chart.  The only thing could change this is another 20 to 30 point rally to 1150+ that would break the negative divergence and the bearish wedge.  While this could certainly happen, I still think the risk is still greater that the SP-500 heads lower first.

SP-500 15-min chart (2:10 pm):

 

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