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Aug 4th, 2010: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on August 4, 2010

8:40 am EST:  ES Futures traded down to 1112 (1116 cash) overnight, staying above the important 200-day SMA of ES 1110 (1114 cash).  Since then the ES ftures have strengthen to 1121 (1125 cash).   The ADP Employment report showed +43,000 jobs for July, which is a 6 straight monthly gain.   This ADP report is signaling that Friday’s Non-Farm Employment report will be near consensous (-70,000) and should not be the big drop that some have feared.  The ES Futures jumped from 1115 to 1121 (1119 to 1125 cash) on the ADP report. 

My thinking is the same as the EOD report yesterday.  The SP-500 cash market should head higher in a wave v-1-(3) triangle break-out that targerst the 1134 to 1138 cash market level.  

To the down side, again watch the 1114 level (200-day SMA) as support.   And any drop be 1106 (gap support) would be short term extremely bearish and bring the alternate count into play.

SP-500 15-min chart real time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=87b380a7-a2d1-47ea-8218-8094a5a942af

ES Futures (8:15 am):

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