Aug. 2nd, 2010: Update 2 – Afternoon
Posted by pugsma on August 2, 2010
3:40 pm EST: A very stong push up today certainly looks like a iii-(3)-3-[1]-P3 move. And the alternate count shown last Friday EOD of is out. However, if this is a iii-(3)-3 move then it should not stop here at 1126. It should power on through the middle channel line and bust up the potential bearish rising wedge pattern (see 60-min chart below). The alternate count would be that this move from 1011 to 1126 is a leading diagonal triangle for wave 1-[1] (i.e. a bearish rising wedge). And it’s complete or almost complete after today’s move. Leading diagonals apear in the wave 1 of an impulse or A position of a corrective, so this fits with a wave 1-[1]-P3 impuluse move up. In which case we’ll see a deep correction for 2-[1] of between 38% and 62% back down to the 1055 to 1082 area to better form the right should on the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This alternate count would agree with Springheel_Jack’s Scenario that he has shown on the ES.
I’m a believer in the primary count for now and we need to see the SP-500 consolidate above the 200-day SMA of 1115 and push above 1131 (June high) to confirm this count. But we should keep watch out for the alternate count if the SP-500 breaks down below lower channel line that has now pushed up the the 1095 to 1105 area.
SP-500 60-min Chart (3:30 pm):
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