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July 29th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 29, 2010

 9:05 pm EST:  I justed updated a mistake on the 15-min chart.  I have removed the small inverse head and shoulders with neckline at 1097, since the neckline should not be breached on the downside once crossed above.  There is a reaming large inverse head and shoulders as seen on the 60-min chart with a neckline at 1120.   So the SP-500 is going to need to decisively take out 1120 in order to reach the wave 3-[1] target area of 1150 to 1177 and ultimately the wave [1]-P3 target area of 1200 to 1230.   And realistically any pull-back tomorrow going into next week really needs to hold the 50-day SMA at 1081.   So even though the alternate count is possibile, if it occurs it will be very damaging to the bull case.

7:50 pm EST:  I’m not 100% convinced that the correction off of the 1121 high is over.  My primary count is that 1121 is the end of wave (1)-3-[1].   The correction the SP-500 is currently in is wave (2)-3-[1].   We should be looking for a 50% (1089) to 62% (1081) correction for a wave (2).  So far we’ve had a correction to 1093 (44%) and that close to the 50% correction and thus could be the end, but we need to watch the 1089 and 1081 levels too.   The lower limit of the wave (2)-3-[1] for this primary count is 1057.

If there is a deeper correction than 1081 lasting longer that tomorrow, I’m looking at the alternate count (purple) that has 1121 as then end of wave 1-[1] and the wave 2-[1] correction could go as deep as 1053 (62% of wave 1-[1]).  The lower limit of this alternate count wave 2-[1] correction is the July 1st low of 1011.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

 

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

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