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July 28th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 28, 2010

6:10 pm EST:  Primary count is that wave (3)-3-[1] ended at 1121 yesterday and wave (4)-3-[1] is in process.  This wave (4) must stay above the wave (1) high of 1089.  There is a very nice channel on the 15-min chart that shows wave (4) complete at 1103 this afternoon.  If wave (4) is complete at 1103, wave have wave (5)-3-1[1] targets of 1135 and 1155 for (5)=(1) and (5)=1.62(1) respectively.  The 15-min chart Invervse  Head & Shoulders measure to 1137 and agrees with the wave (5)=(1) target.

I have established a new alternate count (purple) if the 1089 level is breached.  It is that 1121 was just the top of wave 1-[1], meaning that the 1057 low was just a 50% retrace for wave (4)-1-[1].  This count is more bullish longer term than th primary count, but near term in is bearish meaning a level between 1053 (62% retrace ) and 1079 (38% retrace) for wave 2-[1] would  seen in the next few days to a week.   This count would allow the 1072 gap to be filled.  And as some people have mentioned this count would agree with a near term cycle low around August 3rd or 4th.  I do like the look of this count and it woud allow for a 2nd right shoulder to form on the large Inverse Head and Shoulder on the 60-min chart.  It’s all going to depend on if 1089 can be held near term and if the 2nd quarter GDP report is good or bad on Friday morning.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chat (EOD):

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