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July 20th, 2010: Update 2 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on July 20, 2010

10:30 am EST:  The 1056.88 level was hit, which is just above the 50% retrace of 1055.  Bulls are doing a good job of digesting and consolidating today’s drop above this key area.  If they can hold 1055 today, then it will be a big victory.  It will set the stage for another attack on the down sloping trend line off the April 1220 high.   But now the trendline has fallen into the 1070 to 1080 area, which will make it easier to crack from a launch piont in this 1060 area.  Also, note that this 1070 to 1080 area is where the 13-day EMA and 20-day SMA reside.  So if the bulls can mount a rally that gets through this 1070 to 1080 area, it could be game changing in the intermediate term.

To the downside risk, a break down of 1055 will lead to a test of the 62% retrace level of 1044.  There is significant longer term support around 1040.

SP-500 15-min chart (10:20 am):

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