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July 19th, 2010: Update 3 – Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on July 19, 2010

3:45 pm EST:  The VIX chart is still bullish for the intermediate term trend change, as long as it’s stays trapped below the 13-day and 34-day EMA.

PUG VIX Daily Chart (7-19-10):

3:15 pm EST:  The contracting triangle wave iv-(c) is out.  There is an expanded flat possibility for wave iv-(c) that targets 1076 before the wave (5)-(c) drop to 1055.  But this is looking very unlikely has the bulls are re-gaining control.  A close above the 13-day EMA of 1074 would be tremendous for the bulls.  Notice on the last break down from 1131 the bulls were not able to regain the 13-day EMA after it busted.   A capture of 1074 today, sets the stage for an attempt to break the key 1090 area and downward trendline off the 1220 high in April.  This in turn would set-up a large inverse head and shoulders neckline break that targets 1190 to 1200.   Bulls have a some work to do this week, but they can still keep the upper hand and force an intermediate trend change.

SP-500 Daily Candle Chart (3:03 pm):

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