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July 2nd, 2010: Update 6 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 2, 2010

5:10pm:  The PUG P2 bottom of 1010.91 has been put in at the 38% fib retrace of P1 on July 1st, 2010.   On the updated daily bull model chart notice the white parallel P1 channel lines.  When the lower channel line was busted on May 6th, 2010 we had confirmation that P2 was underway.  Now notice the light blue channel lines, added today, that line up the 38% fib retrace of P1 for the end of P2 at 1010.91.  We also had [C]=0.62[A] target of 1020.  I believe that for yesterday and today we were putting the waves i-ii of 1-1-[C]-P3.   The VIX dropped 8% today with the SP-500 staying in the red.  I believe we  are set-up for an explosive move higher Tuesday, July 6th.  We saw just a hint of that move higher in the last hour of today.  The real 4th of July fireworks should begin on July 6th with a move up to 1085 by OPEX Friday July 16th is underway.  I’m targeting the 1250 to 1300 level for wave [1]-P3 by the end of 2010. 

The alternate count (in red) is the same.   Today was the completion of wave b-4-[C]-P2  and I expect wave c-4-[C]-P2 up to the 1040 area on Tuesday July 6h.   If the market rejects the back-test of 1040, then move down for 5-[C]-P2 to levels below 1010.91 will likely materialized.  I’m still targeting the 975 area for this wave 5-[C]-P2 to end.  It should be slightly above the 50% fib retrace of P1, which rests at 943, and above the [C]=[A] target of 952.  This alternate count allows a few more weeks for P2 to works it’s way lower if need be, but the targt for the end of the year is stillin the 1250 to 1300 range (more likely the 1250 area vs 1300 for the primary count).

Enjoy the 4th of July Holiday with family and friends!

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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