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July 1st, 2010: Update 2 – Intra-day Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on July 1, 2010

12:00pm EST:  Well, the 1010, 38% retrace of P1 was tested at 1010.91 and held thus far.  Obviously, this is a critical level to hold.  I’m looking for a significant bounce to develop from here.   The first resistance area to cross and close above is now the 1020 area, then 1040 and 1050.   So there is a tough slug ahead for this bounce up.  For the primary count, the bounce will be wave 2-[C]-P2 with targets of 1056 (38%) to 1085 (62%).   This primary count buys more time (1 to 3 months) for P2 to unfold towards the 50% target of 943 or 62% target of 870.

I have removed the 1st alternate count, as I don’t like the look of the large ED now that 1010 was hit on this wave down.  For the 2nd alternate count (now the only alternate), there is a moderate to low probability that 1010 (38% P1 retrace) will hold as the end of [C]-P2 and we are headed upward from here in the next long bull run in wave P3 up.    I believe the alternate to this alternate, if you will, is that we continue to drop directly to the 943 area (50% P1 retrace) as this [C]-P2 goes for the [C]=[A] target area of 950 without any significant bounce.  This would transpire over the next couple of weeks and put in the P2 bottom much sooner than the primary count. 

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=56fb4944-5070-4298-8298-786a46343ecd

SP-500 15-min chart (11:45am):

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