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June 30th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 30, 2010

4:55pm EST:  Another lower, low set today at 1028, which is right at the Nov 5th, 2009 low of 1029.  I have the primary count shown on the 15-min chart that has this 1028 low as wave (5)-v-1-[C]-P2.  Today’s move up to 1048 was (4)-v-1.  So, I’m looking for a bounce back up for wave 2-[C]-P2 to at least 1080 (50% retrace) and mostly likely 1092 (62% retrace) over the next two weeks going into OPEX Friday, July 16th.  Ultimately, wave 3-[C]-P2 would bust through this 1020 to 1040 support area and head for a 50% P1 retrace to the 943 area in late summer to early fall.

I have a couple alternate counts going as well.  The alternate count I was showing yesterday is now the 2nd alternate shown in red as before.  It’s that this entire move down from the 1131 area is the 5-wave [C]-P2 drop with a target of 1020 for [C]=0.62[A] and near the 38% P1 retrace target of 1010.  This count would imply that we are very close to a new intermediate trend change back upward.  It’s my least confident count, as I think P2 needs more time and maybe more price to complete.  One additional note about this count.  You cound extend the target to [C]=[A] and then the target is 952 for [C]-P2.  So this count would mean a continued rapid drop to 952 or the 50% P1 retrace target.  This continued rapid drop would happen over the course of the next few weeks.

I have established a new 1st alternate count that has us in wave 3-[C]-P2, in which the entire wave [C]-P2 is a large ending diagonal (ED) that is going to play out over the course of next 6 to 8 weeks.  There won’t be much more price drop in this count, as the wave 4-[C]-P2 bounce will head back to the 1090 to 1100 area for OPEX week July 16th.  And then wave 5-[C]-P2 will drift back down to the 1020 area going into mid to late August.  This count buys more time for P2 to play-out but not much more price drop from where we are today.  This count would frustrate both the bears and bulls as we’ll be stuck between 1020 and 1100 for 2 months (and we have aready been here for almost a month already).

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

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