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June 29th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 29, 2010

5:20pm EST:  For the primary count I have wave 1-[C]-P2 at or near completion at 1035.  I’m looking for 2-[C]-P2 to bounce up to between 1083 (50%) and 1094 (62%) over the next 1 to 2 weeks.   Then we’ll get the big wave 3-[C]-P2 drop towards 950 after the Q2 earnings news begins to come out.  I’m looking for P2 reach 943 (50% retrace of P1) around the end of August or early Sept time frame.

A new intermediate low of 1035 was set today.  This brings up the interesting possibility of setting up strong positive divergence between the key oscillators (RSI,  MACD and McCellan) and price.  I have dumped the Leading Diagonal alternate count because the retrace of 50% for [B]-P2 to 1131 was not large enough for a LD.  I have replaced this alternate count that we are in the 5th wave of [C]-P2 with a target in the 1020 area for [C]=0.62[A].  Also a 38% retrace of P1 is at 1010.   There is a lot of support in the 1018 to 1029 area and this scenario will set-up well with suprising the bears (a lot of bearish sentiment now) and the potential postitive divergences that could develop with the new price lows.   Also this scenario would be part of a failed Head and Shoulders that would also fool many traders.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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